In the past, having a week of transfer inactivity in late June would be seen as no big deal in N17. But the men’s team has filled our thoughts with £150 million “war chests”, Champions League nights, and a few early signings, so the supporters are ready, champing at the bit really, for more.
An area of focus (or concern depending on who you are speaking with) is the attack. With Steven Bergwijn all but on his way back to the Netherlands there are divided opinions amongst the fan base on who should replace him. Many are happy with Everton’s Richarlison as long as Antonio Conte is. Others pine for Leeds United’s Raphinha and his hint of flare. Some do not want either but I can’t realistically discuss every player in Football Manager now, can I? So we’ll discuss, mostly, these two players in this article.
Before I start, I want to make it clear that I’d be perfectly happy with Richarlison, Raphinha, or any handful of talented players playing across the world. As long as they upgrade on Lucas Moura, let’s do it. We have Champions League this season along with the new five-substitute rule in the Premier League, so it’s imperative to improve the first attacking option off the bench until other deals materialize.
To understand the position we’re in though, we must start with Lucas Moura, the baseline. Looking at his stats and career trends should make it clear why we need to improve the fourth attacker.
Strangely enough, when only looking at his baseline numbers non-penalty expected goals and assists per 90 minutes (npxG+A), Lucas just came off his most successful season. Sure, in 2018-19 he scored 10 league goals but he wildly over performed his xG, netting almost double what his underlying numbers would have predicted. The problem arises clearly when we look at the next three seasons and he continues to amass paltry underlying and real numbers, racking up 10.8 xG in those years and only scoring nine in league play. That’s comprised of 5400 minutes and when averaged out, comprises of a pedestrian 0.19xG/90.
His only saving grace is that this year he had a meaningful jump in xA/90 to 0.23 which brought his overall npxG+A to 0.41/90, by far his career high. It should be noted he only surpassed 0.10xA/90 once in his career before that. People will ask: is the jump due to heavy sub effects once he moved to the bench in January? Is that the Conte effect? To which I have to believe the answers to both are yes.
Doesn’t seem a bad first option then? Well, we all know that Lucas does not always pass the eye test and routinely makes bad decisions. Additionally, with the club moving toward a win now and win big model, the first guy off the bench should not be a one-trick pony who can play wide. As mentioned earlier, the first attacker off the bench has to be better. Could Lucas be a viable second man off the bench? Depending on who we buy, sure, why not, but I’d also love to see what a full preseason under Conte could do for our forgotten Spanish youngster Bryan Gil who also boasts a mean dribble in his locker.
Now that we’ve established the baseline performance of our fourth attacker let’s take a look at Raphinha, Leeds United’s impressive winger. Since coming over from Stade Rennes in 2021, the attacker has been a consistent performer in Leeds unique set up. He is, of course, a monster in the press. How could he not be? But what stands out immediately is his high npxG+A/90. During 2020-21, in a better team, he managed 0.54xG+A/90. This year, while playing for a team that battled COVID-19 outbreaks and injuries abound, he still put up a very respectable 0.46/90. For point of comparison, that is the exact same number Dejan Kulusevski put up for us.
How they get there is quite different, however. Raphinha gets shots, lots and lots of shots. His league average of 2.62 shots/90 put him almost in the top 20% of the league. For a winger that is impressive. His pass completion, on the other hand, is atrocious. He completed just 63.8% of his passes last year which is “yikes!” level of low but may be influenced by his whopping attempt of 5.22 progressive passes per 90 minutes. This stat is almost exactly double what our beloved Deki attempts. Before thinking our ginger from Sweden is some kind of attacking prude, though, we should realize that Leeds and Spurs are not tactical analogues, and while the 5.22 progressive passes is impressive, Kulusevski has been sounder with the ball—much sounder—completing 82.6% of his passes.
Nonetheless, acquiring a player who can step into wide roles and reproduce Deki’s production, albeit in a very different way, is a mouth-watering proposition. Given his age, output, and Premier League stamp of approval, Raphinha’s £65 million price tag is justified.
Which brings us to the next player garnering transfer gossip; a player that, according to multiple outlets, seems destined to arrive in N17 this summer: Richarlison. Many have scoffed at his relatively high price tag of £50 million. But when we look at his production and underlying numbers, we see a player who is much more suited to being our fourth attacker than Lucas, a player that arrived from Paris St. Germain on a bargain basement discount in January 2017, but still cost £25m.
Since transferring to Watford in 2017, the Richarlison has scored 44 non-penalty goals on 46.5 npxG. Not bad for a guy playing in mediocre to bad teams for five seasons. And if we look at his combined npxG+A/90 over that period he comes out at 0.40 (even with a “down” year this past season.) As worrying as a dip in form may be, that Everton team was atrocious, and his average attacking output over five years is the same as Lucas’ best year despite playing with inferior teammates.
Another bonus to signing Richarlison is his versatility. Like his countryman he possesses aggressiveness in the press and defense, but can also play across the attacking band, including striker, should Harry Kane need a rest or succumb to injury. That gives him something that Raphinha does not have. We are starting the year in four competitions and modest estimates project us playing 50 games in what was going to be a difficult schedule anyway. 2000-25000 minutes are there to be had for a player with such a skill set. Buying Richarlison gives us flexibility in the market to go after another playmaker like Christian Eriksen instead of buying the £65m Raphinha and additionally having to spend big money on a forward like Victor Osimhen of Napoli, Moussa Dembele of Lyon, or any other massive names with no Premier League experience.
And let’s face it, to some fans that does not matter. We like names. We like radars. We like scooping up the next star before they are a popular But Antonio Conte could not give a damn about that. He has been on record that Spurs have made “mistakes” in past windows in thinly veiled reference to expensive signings such as Giovani Lo Celso, Tanguy Ndombele, and Bryan Gil. Players that should have fit, players with immense talent, but who so far have not even come close to justifying their transfer fees.
So it really does boil down to this: do we trust Conte?
Throughout his career the manager has been known for identifying skills in players and maximizing them. Whether it’s launching Paul Pogba’s career at Juventus after Manchester United let him walk, Ivan Perisic’s early 30’s renaissance, or good players acsent into stardom, one thing is constant: Conte.
Is it coincidence that the Italian shows up and Lucas has the best underlying numbers of his career? Is it coincidence that Son goes supernova and wins the Golden Boot, going from a steady 0.55xG+A player to 0.73? The answer is it is not. In fact, in spite of a woeful start to the campaign, Harry Kane finished the year with the same exact npxG+A as he did in 2020-21, a year that saw him score 23 goals and provide 14 assists in league play.
Widening our scope a bit, Romelu Lukaku, already an accomplished star when Conte got his hands on him, went from a 0.60 npxG+A guy at United to 0.72 at Inter, claiming a scudetto along the way. And if you think it’s just because they were feeding shots to the Belgian big man, well, the numbers say otherwise, because Lautaro went up by 0.05, too.
So, if we trust Conte, and the numbers say we should, we could reasonably expect Richarlison to perform anywhere from 8-15% better in our system. All of a sudden a good player becomes a real threat, a player we could assume would generate 0.48-.53 npxG+A/90, provided he’s healthy. Basically, those are Son-level underlying stats from 2016-2021. That makes me really excited about the prospects of bringing him into the squad.
Of course, in a perfect world we could buy Raphinha, Richarlison, and Osimhen. I’d love it. Reality, however, reminds us that we still need a top-tier right back and center back, at least. They aren’t giving those out at train stations like Latter Day Saints pamphlets. We’re going to have to spend for quality. And because of that, securing Richarlison, and covering all the attacking positions, would go a long way toward improving our roster depth and quality in one fell swoop.
Stay sane out there. Be safe. And always, COYS!
I just don't see a good player in Richarlison.
https://i.imgur.com/EgGMtlV.jpg