When Will We See Spence?
Fans love to believe in incremental improvement and progression; don't.
Tottenham supporters have been a happy lot this off-season. Then an impatient lot. Now an angsty lot. And it’s all the transfer window’s fault. Sure, publications and 24-hour sport networks make it worse with their framing of each team’s business, but I think Spurs supporters would be gnawing fingernails anyway. When word came down that there would be £150 million to spend this summer, most people assumed that big money would be splashed on obvious weak areas within the squad.
While major money has been spent, the only area we’ve dropped the bag is in attack, going from strength to strength. That’s been leaving many to wonder why we haven’t gone all out for big targets at left center back and right wingback. Now, I think the market for young center backs has been slow to develop, and that makes sense given how valuable they are. With Clément Lenglet and Ben Davies there to deputize we are not in a position where we have to cede negotiating power.
The right wingback story has been something else. We did buy a player, Djed Spence, from Middlesbrough. He had an impressive season with Nottingham Forest last year in a campaign that saw the club promoted. Along with Spence we also have incumbents Matt Doherty and Emerson Royal. And if that isn’t enough of a log jam, Lucas Moura has been getting minutes there during preseason, too.
To many it seems as if we are trying to solve the situation on the right side with quantity instead of quality. And that may be fair but I cannot see us going into the year with all four vying for minutes. Unless Antonio Conte hates Spence’s guts at a level we have not seen reported, one of Matt Doherty or Emerson Royal is a good bet to be playing somewhere else by the end of the window.
Of course this is all speculation, but we do have a history of what Conte likes from wingbacks and although Doherty and Royal have specific qualities, they do not profile in that mold. Spence, and—honestly—Lucas, do. The problem is that neither of them have ever played wingback or even fullback at the Premier League level. I’m here to explain why that might not be as big of an issue as many think.
First of all, I think we will see Emerson and Doherty early in the season as long as we’re having success. Our manager going with the trusted, yet flawed, option is not absurd. In fact, right before our Irish wingback went down with injury last year, Conte figured out how to use his talents. This gives Spence (and admittedly Lucas) time to understand the Italian’s demands for the position while building fitness to bomb up and down the flank like a madman for the whole match.
But once we have a bad result or real struggle in that position I think we’ll see Spence. I do not believe it will be one of those slow builds where he plays in a few League and FA Cup matches and is finally ready to start by February. I predict it will be much more sudden than that.
If we look at Antonio Conte’s history, we see him taking players you might not expect and make them wingbacks. Conte took over the Italian national team in 2014 and began playing Antonio Candreva, a prolific winger and attacker, on the right side of his 3-5-2. The reinvigorated Azzurri came together under our current manager and had a good showing at Euro 2016, losing on penalties to Germany in the quarter finals after an impressive victory against holders, Spain, in the round of 16.
What’s even more interesting, however, is the complete 180 Conte pulled, formation-wise, at Chelsea, introducing Victor Moses to the right wing of a 3-4-3. First of all, there were no signs that this would happen let alone be a success. Branislav Ivanovic was probably the right back of the 2010s along with Kyle Walker. Additionally, Victor Moses was just kinda…there. As this season preview from the esteemed Graham MacAree details, Moses was a direct, industrious winger, not a wingback, nor a star. That wasn’t necessarily a problem outside of him playing for an Abramovich-era Chelsea which demanded excellence and name recognition.
After spending the previous season on loan at West Ham, scoring two goals and assisting two more in 1350 mins across all competitions, Moses played a predictable role in the opening of the west London team’s 2016-17 season. He made five appearances off the bench in the Blue’s first six matches, netting a goal in 56 total minutes.
Obviously, we can see that the last three results produced one point and many of us vividly remember the pounding a certain London team gave Chelsea in that 3-nil trouncing. What we couldn’t know that day is how Conte would react, transforming his squad and the league in the process. He went from running out lineups that looked like this:
To this:
There was no gentle progression for Victor Moses becoming Conte’s first choice at wingback. It was a manifestation of bad results, combined with what Conte prefers from wing play. And as if we need reminding, after making that personnel switch, they didn’t lose for 13 matches in a row.
Just as striking as the abrupt change was the fact that it was Victor Moses. Once again, no disrespect to him, but he was a 5’8’’ winger who, up to that point, was known for being Wigan’s best player during their death knell in the Premier League. When this change happened, it looked more like a flailing manager looking for answers where there were none than a season and career-defining moment. But it turns out Moses’ pace, industry, and directness in attack were all the things needed in Conte’s back three set-up; they were a match made in heaven (even if some of their heaven gave us Spurs supporters hell) and the rest is history.
In my opinion, Djed Spence is as well poised to grab his spot in our squad once given the chance. He’s a big young man with athleticism and skill. According to Who Scored, and those who have done video scouting, his ability to take defenders one v one is impressive. This would be extremely useful on our right side where it could present vertical pressure to defenses while they also try to deal with Dejean Kulusevski drifting or cutting inside to link play or supply a final ball. His defensive numbers may not pop out like a savant but they also do not show weaknesses that would exclude him from getting game time.
Lastly, there are certain players whose skill sets are scalable. They become better because they are surrounded by quality and favorable system; and because they fit into the set-up like a glove, the whole team improves. Think Dele (League One to the Premier League!), Andy Robertson, Riyad Mahrez at Leicester, etc.
So, for all those fans grating their teeth over the right side, I think we need to understand what Conte needs from his wingbacks and that Spence is a great purchase within that context. And once he proves he knows exactly what Conte wants and his fitness levels raise, my guess is he’ll never look back.
Stay safe out there. COYS